The European Commission worsened today the forecast for the Portuguese deficit by two tenths, expecting a negative balance of public accounts of 4.7% this year. However, public debt improved by three percentage points, to 127.2%.
According to the economic forecasts for spring released today, the Portuguese deficit will remain like this two tenths higher than expected by Brussels last fall (4.5%), but public debt drops from the 130.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) previously expected to 127.2%.
As for the deficit, Brussels is more optimistic than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (5.0%) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (6.3%), but more pessimistic than the Government (4.5%) and the Public Finance Council (4.1%).
Regarding the public debt ratio compared to GDP, the European Commission has more optimistic forecasts than most institutions, with the Government forecasting 128.0%, the IMF 131.4%, the CFP 131.5% and the OECD (139.7% ).
For 2022, according to the spring forecasts released today by Brussels, the Portuguese deficit is expected to fall to 3.4%, and the public debt to 122.3% of GDP.
On the other hand, it improved the economic forecasts for spring, its perspective on the unemployment rate in Portugal this year, now pointing to 6.8%, when in November last year it expected 7.7%.
The Commission’s forecasts released today are the most optimistic of all the main institutions, as the Government expects an unemployment rate of 7.3% this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of Portugal (BdP) point to 7.7%, the Public Finance Council (CFP) predicts 8.3% and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) expects 9.5%.
According to the forecasts of spring known today, Brussels is still confident about the evolution of this indicator for 2022, forecasting that the unemployment rate will fall to 6.5% next year, two tenths below the Government’s forecast (6.7 %).