Specialists assess the consequences of the lack of control in production chains for the economic recovery
The lack of control in production chains, valuation of commodities and the consequent high input are factors that should prevail until the end of the second year of pandemic. The president of Abiquim, the Brazilian Chemical Industry Association, Ciro Marino, also condemns a process of opening up the Brazilian market. “The Brazilian chemical industry and Argentina and Uruguay joined together to make a manifesto asking the Brazilian government for a little more parsimony in this judgment and in this international insertion. We are not yet prepared to compete in conditions to compete with the countries that we currently compete in the OECD”, he stated. He points out that the Brazilian cargo reaches 45% in the sector, against 25% in the global market. The chief economist at Rico, an XP company, Rachel de Sá, stresses that the disarray of the production chains is worldwide in the post-pandemic and analyzes the Brazilian scenario. “We still have an important replenishment of inventories to make, so there is still room to grow. Demand did not drop, we see in retail, for example, the retail data came in a little lower than expected, but this was taken by the supermarket subsector. It even makes sense, people started to buy less in the markets and consumer more in the service that they used to be consumer. It may affect the industrial issue, but we do not see it being an obstacle to the industry’s recovery in the coming months.”
The automotive sector has its growth limited by the lack of parts. There is demand, but production cannot meet, explains the president of Anfavea, Luiz Carlos Moraes. “This problem continues in the second half and we will have to face this issue, each assembler with its strategy trying to find an alternative, but we hope that this problem will also remain in the second half as well. This theme will probably be stabilized as of the second half of 2022”, he points out. The government’s project to resume the taxation of dividends received strong criticism from the productive sectors. The president of Abimaq, José Velloso, from the Machinery and Equipment industry, believes that the text inhibits investments. “The way the bill is, it will inhibit investments in Brazil. Brazil will be one of the most expensive countries for multinationals that send profits abroad, which is normal. So it will lose investment attractiveness, because it will tax more than other countries and will increase the cost of those who undertake”, he explains. The president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira reiterates that a tax reform it is on the “right path to correct distortions” and that Congress will have “the serenity to improve the concepts of simplifying, reducing bureaucracy and providing legal certainty”. According to him, the text will not be coming back “as long as it is not mature and discussed with all the benches”.
*With information from the reporter Marcelo Mattos