Court orders of R$90 billion and Bolsa Família at R$400 increase fiscal pressure

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The forecast of a deficit of 170.47 billion reais in the central government accounts in 2022 may be even greater with the proposals for payment of court orders and an increase in the value of the family allowance. In the view of specialists, the two ideas, which gained momentum this week, could blow the federal government’s spending ceiling.

But to include any amount that increases the gap in the accounts, congressional approval is required. The government still talks with lawmakers to assess the size of the political weariness of trying to pass on an issue like this.

Still under debate within the Executive, the payment of precatory orders by the Union reaches 90 billion reais in 2022. This year, the amount was 55 billion reais to pay for actions that the federal government lost in court and which can no longer be appealed.

“Since the spending ceiling was implemented, under Michel Temer’s government, there has always been a loophole to burst. Now, in the context of a campaign on the street, there’s a reason. But there was no conversation with minimal information and there is no proposal. They are going to make a ‘gambiarra’ to pay in installments”, says political scientist André Pereira César, from Hold Assessoria Legislativa.

This Wednesday, 4th, the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), said that it is “impossible” for the government to pay the 90 billion in precatório and defended the payment in installments.

“There is no possibility, there is no condition to pay 90 billion reais in the next year of court orders. It would consume all the country’s discretionary investment resources to pay court orders at once,” said the congressman in the morning, in interview with the program Newspaper People, from Rádio Bandeirantes.

The idea of ​​splitting the payments, also defended by Economy Minister Paulo Guedes, would be approved through a Proposal for Amendment to the Constitution (PEC). The big problem is that this way it takes two-thirds of the votes to get approval.

For the professor of economics and finance at FGV/EAESP, Nelson Marconi, currently the legislation does not allow the payment of payment in installments. “The government can even try to do this in a PEC. Today, it cannot postpone it because in practice it is taking out a loan. From a practical point of view, they are defaulting,” he says.