Dollar and Ibovespa fall with BC interest rate decision and fiscal risk on the radar – Prime Time Zone


The recent acceleration of inflation makes the market bet on an increase of 1 percentage point in the Selic by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), raising the interest rate to 5.25%. At the last meeting, in June, the collegiate signaled that it should repeat the dose of 0.75 percentage points, but “left the door open” for a more robust increase. The financial market once again raised the outlook for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the official meter of inflation Brazilian. This was the 17th consecutive week that the estimate has been revised upwards. In the last edition, the forecast indicated an increase of 6.56%. The BC pursues the inflation target of 3.75%, with a margin of 1.5 percentage points up or down, that is, between 2.25% and 5.25%. The preview of the index was 0.72% in July, the highest value since 2004, and accumulated 8.59% in the last 12 months. Market analysts also revised upward the expectation for the 2022 IPCA, from 3.80% to 3.81%. The target for the BC next year is 3.50%, with a variation between 2% and 5%. Despite the new advance in inflation expectations, the market maintained the Selic forecast, the BC’s main tool to contain price variation, at 7% per year in 2021 and 2022.