Investors await BC’s position for the basic interest rate and follow the movements in Brasilia for the disclosure of the new text of the tax reform and the developments of Covid’s CPI
O financial market closed this Monday, 3, in the positive field with investors waiting for the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) on the interest rate and attentive to the movements for the resumption of tax reform in Congress. The market also follows developments in the Covid-19 Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPI), who should listen this week to former Health Ministers, Luiz Henrique Mandetta and Nelson Teich. In view of this scenario, the dollar closed with a fall of 0.24%, to R $ 5.419, after oscillating between the minimum of R $ 5.375 and the maximum of R $ 5.455. The US currency ended last week with an increase of 1.79%, to R $ 5.432. Following the good international mood, the Ibovespa, reference of the Brazilian Stock Exchange, ended the day with an increase of 0.27%, to 119,209 points. Friday’s trading session, 30, closed with a decrease of 0.98%, to 118,893 points.
The Copom announces on Wednesday, 5, the new position of the Central Bank for the interest rate. The market consensus is that the national monetary authority adds another 0.75 percentage point and moves the Selic rate to 3.5% per year. If this movement is confirmed, it will be the second consecutive increase with the change from 2% to 2.75% in the meeting held at the end of March. The interest rate is the central tool of the BC to control inflation, which was 6.1% in the 12 months ended in March. The president of the national monetary authority, Roberto Campos Neto, indicated that the recent escalation of the IPCA gives rise to a further increase in the Selic rate at this week’s meeting. Still in the domestic market, the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), promised until this Monday the release of a new opinion on tax reform. Announced last week, the text should give new impetus to discussions about changes in the Brazilian tax and tribute system, pointed out as one of the main obstacles to the increase in investments in the country.
The market has revised upward the inflation expectations for the fourth consecutive week and foresees greater expansion of the Brazilian economy in 2021, according to figures from the Focus Bulletin released on Monday. Economists and entities consulted by the Central Bank estimate that the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the official meter of Brazilian inflation, ends the year at 5.04%. Last week, the forecast was 5.01%, while a month ago the expectation reached 4.81%. The sources of the national monetary authority also renewed the expectation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to advance of 3.14%, compared to a forecast of 3.09% last week and 3.17% a month ago. This was the second week in a row that the Focus Bulletin shows greater market optimism in the recovery of the national economy after the historical fall of 4.1% recorded in 2020.