Focus Bulletin: IPCA projection rises from 7.58% to 8.0% in 2021


The projection of the financial market for the inflation in 2021 distanced itself even further from the ceiling of the target pursued by the Central Bank (BC). Financial market economists changed the forecast for the IPCA – the official price index – this year, according to the Market Focus Report, from 7.58% to 8% high. A month ago, it was at 7.05%. The projection for the index in 2022 went from 3.98% to 4.03%. Four weeks ago it was at 3.90%.

The Focus report also brought the estimate for the IPCA in 2023, which followed at 3.25%. In the case of 2024, the expectation went from 3.00% to 3.03%. Four weeks ago, these forecasts were 3.25% and 3.00%, respectively.

Economists’ projection for inflation remains well above the 2021 target ceiling of 5.25%. The center of the target for the year is 3.75%, with the margin of tolerance being 1.5 points (from 2.25% to 5.25%).

The 2022 target is 3.50%, with a margin of 1.5 points (from 2.00% to 50%), while the parameter for 2023 is inflation of 3.25%, with a margin of 1.5 point (from 1.75% to 4.75%).

For 2024, the target is 3.00%, with a margin of 1.5 points (from 1.5% to 4.5%).

The weekly survey with a hundred economists showed that, for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the estimated growth is now 5.04% for this year and 1.72% for 2022, 5.15% and 1 .93% before.