‘GDP preview’ rose 0.6% in July, above expectations

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Brazilian economic activity presented the second consecutive month of high in July, although the pace of advance has slowed down. The Central Bank (BC) informed this Wednesday, 15, that its Activity Index (IBC-Br) rose 0.60% in July compared to June, in the series already free of seasonal influences. In the previous month, the advance had been 0.92% (data revised on Wednesday).

The negative effects of the covid-19 pandemic on the country were felt mainly in the first half of last year. After this period, the IBC-Br began to react, until the second wave caused, in early 2021, new company closures. With that, the indicator started to oscillate. In March, economic activity declined, but in April there was an advance. May registered another retreat and, in June and July, the indicator rose again.

From June to July, the activity index calculated by the BC increased from 139.68 points to 140.52 points in the seasonally adjusted series. This is the highest level since February this year (140.98 points).

The high of the IBC-Br exceeded the median of 0.40% of estimates in the survey by Broadcast Projections, whose range went from a drop of 0.30% to an advance of 0.80%.

year-on-year comparison

In the comparison between the months of July 2021 and July 2020, there was growth of 5.53% in the series without seasonal adjustments. This series registered 143.35 points in July, the best performance for the month since 2015 (143.37 points).

The indicator for July 2021 compared to the same month of 2020 was also above the median of 5.00% of the projections (growth from 2% to 6.50%).

Reviews

This Wednesday, the Central Bank revised its IBC-Br data at the margin, in the adjusted series. The IBC-Br for June increased from 1.14% to 0.92%, while the index for May changed from a fall of 0 55% to growth of 0.60%.

In the case of April, the index changed from a positive variation of 0.90% to an increase of 0.55%.

The data for March changed from a retraction of 1.98% to a decline of 1 77%, and that of February went from an expansion of 1.67% to 1.63%. In relation to January, the BC changed the increase indicator from 0.66% to 0.51%.

Parameter

Known as a kind of “BC preview for GDP”, the IBC-Br serves more precisely as a parameter to assess the pace of the Brazilian economy over the months. BC’s current projection for domestic activity in 2020 is 4.6% growth. This estimate will be updated in September, in the next Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI).

In the last Focus Market Report released by BC, the projection is for growth of 5.04% of GDP in 2021. The Focus brings together the projections of financial market economists.