In 2021, a new confinement appeared – which is now known – will last, at least, until March. However, for now, João Leão’s team is not yet preparing a second Budget, although it does not completely exclude the scenario.
The impact on the public accounts of this confinement, which is expected to continue until March, was not in the plans of António Costa’s executive when he designed the State Budget for 2021. Despite this, the Express knows that João Leão’s team is not yet preparing a Amending Budget.
For now, as we are at an early stage of budget execution, there are budget margins that can be used. Even so, the possibility of resorting to a second Budget is not excluded.
“At this stage, we do not yet anticipate the need for an Amending Budget, but as the context is highly uncertain cannot be excluded“, A source from the Ministry of Finance told the weekly, noting that OE2021 has a special allocation for unforeseen events related to the pandemic that is centralized in Terreiro do Paço.
Although the estimated impact is accommodating – for now -, you can stop being. The deficit is expected to be above the 4.3% provided for in the Budget and GDP growth will be below 5.4%. These are the estimates of the Minister of Finance, but the official review of the two indicators will only be known in the Stability Program in April.
As the 2020 deficit was below expectations, the starting point is better. However, the confinement appeared by surprise and, according to the source heard by the morning man, “something was not anticipated with this intensity and this impact”. Deficit reduction between 2020 and 2021 will be lower than expected in October at OE2021.