The 1.2% increase in Gross Domestic Product in the first quarter, above market expectations, demonstrates the resilience of the economy in the second year of the pandemic
worn by CPI and the charge for vaccines, given the problems with inputs from the China and drop in immunization, the government focuses on the results of economy to reverse the negative scenario in the second half. The week ends with discharge in START, record on the Stock Exchange, fall in the dollar and more optimistic projections for vaccination. The 1.2% rise in Gross Domestic Product in the first quarter, above market expectations, demonstrates the resilience of the economy in the second year of the pandemic. the president of Abimaq, José Velloso, points out that the Machinery and Equipment sector, a benchmark for investments in capital goods, continues to grow in 2021.
“The period from January to April 2021, when compared to the previous year, there was a strong growth of 37.4%. If we look at the domestic market, it grew 51%. When we analyze our numbers, we grew 18.1% in the last 12 months. In the domestic market, 28%. Exports started to grow again, they had problems last year due to the Covid, and now began to grow. In the year, from January to April, we are already growing by 7.1%. The sector starts, continues to recover. Growth with greater speed. And, in employment, we increased when compared to a year ago, by 16% the number of employees with a formal contract.”
Velloso reinforces the urgency of discussing reforms in Congress, especially tax reforms, because the country needs to increase its investment rate, which is still considered low — 16.2% of GDP. In a hearing at the Chamber this week, the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, said that Brazil should continue growing and that the advance of the vaccination campaign accelerates the economic recovery. “So, if ‘we are’ growing 1% above this 1st quarter of last year, it is signaling that the economy has fallen very sharply into the pandemic, this year the vaccination itself, the advancement of protocols and the very learning of how to protect yourself during the pandemic, are protecting the economy a little more. It is possible that we are actually growing at much higher rates.”
The Stock Exchange broke a record and the dollar fell to its lowest level since December, after growth of 1.2% in GDP – the sum of the wealth produced in the country. The real had the best performance among global currencies and the Exchange approached 130,000 points for the first time in history. The secretary of Economic Policy, Adolfo Sachsida, reinforces the Brazilian recovery. “We have an investment-led recovery. Investment commands the economic recovery. The second is an international comparison. If we compare at the margin with the previous quarter, Brazil grew 1.2%; China, 0.6%. The G7, group of the seven richest countries in the world, grew 0.4%. In other words, Brazil is right on the tape. If we compare year-on-year, Brazil grew 1%. The United States, 0.4%. The G7 dropped 0.8% And the world average was a drop of 0.6%. The economic policy adopted by the government paid off.”
Economists are unanimous in conditioning the advance of productive activities to the vaccination calendar. In this sense, the forecasts of Rio de Janeiro, with expectation of total immunization by October, and the government of São Paulo, which plans to vaccinate its entire population from 18 years of age until October 31, give strength to the analysis of a second half of the resumption of GDP growth in Brazil. The country created 121,000 formal jobs in April, the fourth consecutive month with a positive balance. Analysts point out that the country has 14 million unemployed, high informality, but they point out the recovery of the services sector, which was heavily affected throughout the pandemic, and once again the strong performance of Brazilian agriculture.
*With information from reporter Marcelo Mattos