The financial market’s projection for inflation in 2021 has moved even further away from the ceiling of the target pursued by the Central Bank. Financial Market Economists changed the forecast for the IPCA – the official price index – this year, as per the Market Focus Report, from 6.11% to 6.31%.
A month ago, it was at 5.90%. The projection for the index in 2022 continued at 3.75%. Four weeks ago it was at 3.78%.
The Focus report also brought the projection for the IPCA in 2023, which followed at 3.25%. In the case of 2024, the expectation was 3.16% to 3.06%. Four weeks ago, these projections were 3.25% for both cases.
Economists’ projection for inflation is already well above the 2021 target ceiling of 5.25%. The center of the target for the year is 3.75%, with the margin of tolerance being 1.5 points (from 2.25% to 5.25%). The 2022 target is 3.50%, with a margin of 1.5 points (from 2.00% to 5.00%), while the parameter for 2023 is 3.25% inflation, with a margin of 1. 5 point (from 1.75% to 4.75%). For 2024, the target is 3.00%, with a margin of 1.5 points (from 1.5% to 4.5%).
Last 5 business days
The median projection for the 2021 IPCA, updated based on the last 5 business days, went from 6.32% to 6.43%, according to the Focus Market Report. There were 53 responses to this projection in the period. A month ago, the calculated percentage was at 5.93%.
In the case of 2022, the IPCA projection for the last 5 business days continued at 3.71%. A month ago, it was at 3.74%. The update in Focus was done by 52 institutions.
Financial market economists changed the forecast for the IPCA in July 2021, from an increase of 0.58% to 0.71%. A month earlier, the projected percentage was 0.40%.
For August, the projection in Focus was for expansion of 0.30% to 0 32% and, for September, it continued at 0.30%. A month ago, the percentages indicated increases of 0.25% and 0.28%, in that order.
In Focus released this Monday, 19, inflation smoothed for the next 12 months was up from 4.31% to 4 27% from one week to another – a month ago, it was at 4.28%.