OPEC raises Brazil’s GDP forecast in 2021 from 3% to 3.2%

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In the document, the group states that the short-term scenario in the country is “more positive”, amid the increase in the supply of vaccines for covid-19 and the expected cooling of the disease

A Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opep) raised the forecast for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Brazil in 2021, from 3% to 3.2%, according to a monthly report released on Thursday. For 2022, the cartel projects 2.5% expansion.

In the document, the group states that the short-term scenario in the country is “more positive”, amid the increase in the supply of vaccines for covid-19 and the expected cooling of the disease. The analysis highlights that economic activity returned to the pre-pandemic level in the first half of the year and proved to be “resilient” to the escalation of coronavirus cases in the first stage of the year.

The Organization recalls that the government approved a new round of emergency aid, which should help sustain the resumption. “However, fiscal policy should be highly contractionary in the short and medium term to offset the massive 2020 spending,” he points out.

oil supply

In the monthly report, OPEC slightly reduced the forecast for the Brazilian supply of the commodity this year, from 3.81 million barrels per day (bpd) to 3.80 million bpd. The number represents an increase of 80,000 compared to the 2020 level. For 2022, the forecast is that production will rise more, 230,000 bpd, to 3.99 million bpd.

The cartel expects an acceleration of supply from the second half of this year, amid increased work in Búzios, on the coast of Rio de Janeiro, and in Atapu, in the Santos Basin. Next year, the boost will come from the Mero-1 fields, in Santos, and Peregrino, in the Campos Basin.

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palheta smll OPEC raises Brazil's GDP forecast in 2021 from 3% to 3.2%

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