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This Thursday, the 27th, the rate of unemployment Brazil in March by IBGE. After the negative result of February, when the country registered a record number of people in the situation of the historical series started in 2012, with 14.4 million unemployed, and with the increase in the operating restrictions of establishments in March, the expectation is that the data for the month does not show any significant improvement.
At the end of February, the unemployment rate stood at 14.4% of the population and the number of discouraged people at the time was around 6 million people. According to Prime Time Zone Invest PRO economist Arthur Mota, a possible worsening of unemployment in March should reflect more the informal sector, which has suffered a greater impact in times of pandemic increase.
In the formal sector, the news remains positive. According to the General Register of Employed and Unemployed (Caged) released by the Ministry of Economy on Wednesday, 26, in April 120,935 formal job vacancies were opened. In the first four months of the year, 987 thousand formal job openings were opened.
Even with the expectation of economic recovery in Brazil from the second half of the year, however, the challenge of employment in the country should not stop until the end of 2022, evaluated the chief economist of BTG Pactual (from the same group that controls EXAME ), Mansueto Almeida, during the CEO Conference Brasil 2021 event on Wednesday.
For the former secretary of the Treasury, the unemployment rate should remain in double digits until the end of next year. “Possibly we will have a recovery of the economy and growth of formal employment, but the unemployment rate will remain high”, he evaluates.
According to him, one of the factors that aggravate the problem of the labor market is the fact that a large part of the country’s jobs depend on the service sector, the most affected while there is still a risk of new waves of contamination and there is no consistent reopening of the economy.
“More than 60% of Brazil’s GDP is linked to the service sector, which is in fact the sector that employs. So, possibly we will have a recovery of the economy and growth of formal employment, but the unemployment rate will remain high,” he said.
The economist sees the country’s economic challenge this year, in 2022 and in the following year generating employment for the approximately 8 million people who left the labor market since February last year. “In addition to generating new jobs for the approximately 1.5 million people who traditionally enter the market every year”, he points out.
For FGV economist Daniel Duque, an additional setback that Brazil must face in order to resume employment is the fact that a part of the population that makes up unemployment and discouraged rates has been out of the labor force for a long time. The country has had an unemployment rate above 10% since 2016, which was aggravated by the pandemic.
“The longer you are out of the job market, the more difficult it is to be hired, so a lot of people end up giving up in that time. I am afraid that we will not have a complete turn around with the participation rate that was there before,” he says .
For the short term, the researcher points to the risk of a third wave of contamination in Brazil as an aggravating factor for employment due to the uncertainty generated by economic activity and services.
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