Why the turbo-charged Bolsa Família threatens the spending ceiling

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The concern is that the account may not close. According to estimates by the economic team, next year’s spending ceiling should provide room for additional spending of 25 to 30 billion reais, compared to this year’s budget. O Bolsa Família turbocharged, with the average amount of 300 reais per month paid to the current 17 million beneficiaries, would fit just scraping this math. Preliminary assessments indicate that the increase in the value of the social program would generate an extra expense of at least 26 billion reais.

With that, concerns about breaking the spending ceiling gained a new contour. This Friday, 30, the interest rate curve rose again, indicating a latent concern with the relaxation of the fiscal rule next year. ‘If the ceiling is not respected, there should be a very negative reaction in asset prices, especially in exchange rates,” says economist Sérgio Vale, from MB Associados. which would be a melancholy end to a fiscal policy that was once so poorly conducted”.