The concern is that the account may not close. According to estimates by the economic team, next year’s spending ceiling should provide room for additional spending of 25 to 30 billion reais, compared to this year’s budget. O Bolsa Família turbocharged, with the average amount of 300 reais per month paid to the current 17 million beneficiaries, would fit just scraping this math. Preliminary assessments indicate that the increase in the value of the social program would generate an extra expense of at least 26 billion reais.
With that, concerns about breaking the spending ceiling gained a new contour. This Friday, 30, the interest rate curve rose again, indicating a latent concern with the relaxation of the fiscal rule next year. ‘If the ceiling is not respected, there should be a very negative reaction in asset prices, especially in exchange rates,” says economist Sérgio Vale, from MB Associados. which would be a melancholy end to a fiscal policy that was once so poorly conducted”.
The government has been signaling that it should implement new social programs, such as the one that provides for the generation of employment for young people, called BIP. Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said on Friday that the benefit will be funded with extraordinary credits of up to 3 billion reais. “This is also the case for fighting the pandemic, because the incidence of unemployment was very strong among these young people,” stated the minister.
The idea of granting raises to public servants is not out of the question either. “Nods to new spending that might please the population in an election year generate political and economic uncertainties that are difficult to calibrate,” says political analyst André Cesar, of Hold Assessoria. “To that, there are added doubts about the approval of the administrative and tax reform, an essential agenda”.
The increase in Bolsa Família alone is expected to generate an extra impact of 26.2 billion reais, according to calculations by RPS Capital. As a result, the 2022 budget would barely have room to accommodate this surplus. “Furthermore, it is necessary to remember that next year’s budget is not yet clear, as it will depend on real inflation at the end of the year and the impact on salaries and social security,” says Vale.