The scenario from a year ago can even be repeated. On October 27, the date of voting on the State Budget for 2022 in general, PCP, PEV and PAN may abstain. This group can also be added to the non-registered deputies, with the Left Block being left out of the equation.
The State Budget for 2022 is delivered this Monday, but after that António Costa still has 16 days to negotiate support. The prime minister is confident that the document will be made viable, but there are several possible scenarios to achieve this end.
According to the Observer, the scenario from a year ago seems most likely: PS in favour; abstention from PCP, PEV and PAN; and the Left Block vote against.
Despite the negotiations, Catarina Martins’ party seems to be inclined to repeat last year’s feat, which forces the Government to align itself with the PCP, PEV and PAN, without forgetting the role of non-registered deputies.
To materialize, the Budget would be ok 108 deputies from the PS voted in favor and 10 deputies from the PCP, 2 from the PEV and 3 from the PAN abstained.
O second scenario it is less likely, but it could drag the PAN into a vote against – which would lead António Costa to negotiate with non-attached deputies, Joacine Katar Moreira and Cristina Rodrigues.
The abstention of both would not be enough, but if they voted in favor (or one of them voted in favor and the other abstained), the formulas would be enough to make the SO2022 feasible.
O third scenario pointed out by the daily, he would place one of the former contraption partners beside the PS: in case of a vote in favour, both the PCP and the BE would be enough, alone with the PS, to make the document viable.
Although it’s not entirely impossible, the fourth scenario it is very unlikely: PS would vote in favor with the abstention of the left and the State Budget for 2022 would be approved.
The September 2019 legislatives changed the panorama, no longer being necessary for the parties to the left of the PS to vote in favor – abstention was enough for the document to pass.
O fifth scenario it is less happy and implies the lead of the State Budget: only the Socialist Party votes in favour, all the other parties against.
If there was a “negative coalition” in which all the left and all the right came together to vote against OE2022, the document would not pass.
In a scenario of internal dispute in the PSD, the sixth scenario appointed by the Observer becomes practically impossible: PS for, left against and PSD abstention – the Budget would be approved.
The daily writes that Rui Rio would have great difficulty internally justifying a vote that would make a Budget for a Government of António Costa feasible. The PSD has already done so, only once since Rio has been the party’s leader, and in a very particular circumstance in the middle of a pandemic: in July 2020 when the PSD abstained from the Supplementary.