According to mathematician Henrique Oliveira, Portugal may have already passed the peak of contagion in the third wave. The only exception in the country is the region of Lisbon and the Tagus Valley, where the numbers continue to stabilize. Specialist defends confinement until the end of March.
The statistics, and the numbers that have been released daily, begin to show the results of the confinement. Infections with covid-19 are slowly decreasing and, according to the Instituto Superior Técnico, Portugal may have already reached its peak contagions.
However, the Lisbon and Tagus Valley continue to resist this decline. Still, there is already a slight slowdown in new cases and the peak may also be near. Not at all, experts say, the population should let their guard down in care, since the risk remains high, which can be explained by the more significant presence of the British variant.
Regarding the number of deaths, this should start to slow down very slightly next week, but it will remain high for a long time, warns Henrique Oliveira, mathematician and professor at Instituto Superior Técnico. “We are going to stay above 100 dead for 40 days (…) It will be very hard ”, indicates in an interview with SIC.
The specialist adds that in hospitals hospitalizations will continue to rise and they will be under great pressure for at least a month.
Even with the hope of the vaccine, the professor guarantees that the impact of the vaccine will not be noticed during the month of February, reiterating that, if the “process goes well” during the next weeks, maybe in March they will start to notice the results.
“This confinement cannot be short. If it is short we will return again to the worst levels in the world ”, says the mathematician. Therefore, it defends that the current rules are due keep at least until March 22, and it is at that time that the reopening of commerce and schools should be decided.
Henrique Oliveira estimates that at the end of March, Portugal will have 21 thousand deaths – 8 thousand more than those currently accounted for.
The researcher’s calculations were made taking into account the current incidence levels, so the future numbers may improve or worse, depending on the worsening of the virus variants and the population’s behavior.
260 deaths and 5549 new cases of covid have been reported in the last 24 hours, according to updated data from the epidemiological bulletin of the Directorate-General for Health (DGS) this Tuesday (February 2).
Ana Moura, ZAP //