Fernando Medina and Rui Moreira will be close to re-election. Almada and Coimbra will be the scene of a fierce struggle and, in Figueira da Foz, Santana threatens a possible return to the City Hall.
No big surprises are expected for the two largest municipalities in the country on the 26th, when local elections are held. The re-election of Fernando Medina and Rui Moreira, in Lisbon and Porto, is almost certain.
According to Expresso, which took stock of all the surveys known so far, Fernando Medina leads, albeit with notable differences.
Aximage’s poll for JN, DN and TSF reveals that the current president of the capital’s Chamber has 51% of voting intentions – close to the absolute majority -, while the SIC/Expresso poll, released on July 22, points to a less expressive victory, with 42% of voting intentions.
In the first, Carlos Moedas, candidate of the Novos Tempos coalition, does not go beyond 27% (a gap of 24 percentage points between the two candidates). In the second survey referred to, it adds up to 31% of voting intentions, just 11 points of difference.
In Porto, the Pythagorean survey indicates that Rui Moreira enslaved 52.8% of voting intentions, an advantage of 37 percentage points in relation to the socialist Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro. The Aximage survey for JN, DN and TSF puts the independent with 59%, 47 points from PS and PSD.
Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro and the social democrat Vladimiro Feliz are tied, with 12% of voting intentions.
The SIC/Expresso poll, published on July 15, also points to an absolute majority of Moreira, with 45% voting intentions. Barbosa Ribeiro is in second place, with 25%.
Almada and Coimbra: suspense until the last
In the survey released this Monday by RTP and Público, Ines de Medeiros (PS) leads the race in Almada, with 33% voting intentions. Maria das Dores Meira (CDU) has 29%.
Since the survey’s margin of error is 3.9%, a tie is possible.
The scenario is very similar to that outlined by the SIC/Expresso survey, released on July 15: PS and CDU in a technical tie, separated by only one point of distance. Inês de Medeiros and Maria das Dores Meira have 34% e 33%, respectively.
In Coimbra, the dispute is also interesting until the last. The president Manuel Machado (PS) has 33% of voting intentions, while the candidate of the coalition between the PSD, CDS, Somos Coimbra, Nós Cidadãos, PPM, VOLT, RIR and Aliança, Jose Manuel Silva, gathers 32% of voting intentions.
Trump Santana in Figueira da Foz
In Amadora, Carla Tavares should be re-elected. The Expresso/SIC poll points out that the socialist – who has had a majority in the Chamber for two decades – has 41% of voting intentions, while Suzana García has 30%.
In Figueira da Foz, one of the main characters in the cast of local authorities is Pedro Santana Lopes, which could regain the autarchy 25 years after being elected mayor.
The ICS/ISCTE projection for Expresso and SIC, released last week, indicates that Santana meets 47% of voting intentions against 35% of socialist João Monteiro, current president of the municipality of Figueira da Foz.