Portugal was only in the “green” during a quarter of the pandemic


António Cotrim / Lusa

Prime Minister António Costa announces plan of deflation and risk matrix

Since the day that the National Institute National Institute of Health Doctor Ricardo Jorge (INSA) registered the transmissibility index in the country – February 21, 2020 -, Portugal was more than half “in the yellow” and a quarter in the comfort zone .

According to Público’s accounts, Portugal was 98 days – around 25% of the total for one year – in the green zone of the graph which will allow us to assess whether it is possible to move forward with the deflation or whether it will be necessary to stagnate (or retreat) the measures.

The risk matrix is ​​divided by colors and will serve as the basis for assessing reopening. The graph takes into account two indicators: the cumulative incidence at 14 days (with a limit of 120 new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants) and the transmissibility index that will have to remain below 1.

On February 21, 2020, Portugal had an R

There followed a 50-day period during which the country would be within the comfort zone, until May 21, and there was an oscillation in transmissibility between 0.8 and 1.1 throughout the summer and until the end of September.

Of the 388 days since February 21 last year, Portugal has spent more than half the time in the yellow zone (219 days, 56%) and a quarter of the days in the comfort zone: 98 days until this Monday, according to the morning’s accounts.

At this moment (and according to the INSA data released on Friday for the 7th of March), Portugal has a R

In national terms, the country is in the green zone, but has 69 counties (60 of them on the continent) with an incidence of more than 120 new cases. Despite being less than 75 than last week, it is almost a quarter of the municipalities (about 22%) that comprise a third of the population (3.4 million people).

Counties above red line

If a given municipality exceeds both limits (R

This means that the 60 counties on the continent with more than 120 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants can condition the 127 neighboring counties. Among these, 14 had an incidence of zero cases in 14 days and, in total, there were 74 municipalities that did not reach the 60 new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants in that period.

The diary advances that Amadora, Lisbon and Odivelas they are the only municipalities, among the 15 with the highest population density (according to the 2011 Census), which remained above 120 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants on 9 March. Porto and other populous municipalities in the North are all below the limit.

Beja, Coimbra, Faro, Lisbon and Setúbal were the five district capitals of the continent above the red line of the 120 new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, accumulated in 14 days, on March 9th.

All of these counties were at a moderate risk level, with the district capital with the highest cumulative incidence being Coimbra (187 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants). In the previous week, she was the only one at the high risk level.

Serpa was the municipality with the highest incidence on the continent – 517 new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, in 14 days – and the only one with a very high risk level, on March 9th.

Funchal and Ponta do Sol are the municipalities with the highest increase in the accumulated incidence in the space of a week – between 2 and 9 March -, which can be explained (totally or partially) by the correctness of the notifications reported by the DGS.

According to the Observer, Vidigueira, Serpa and Carrazeda de Ansiães these are the three counties in the continent with the greatest increase in the number of new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants accumulated during 14 days.

Among the 10 counties that present the greatest decreases in the accumulated incidence in the space of a week, five remain above 120 new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants: Manteigas, Resende, Sobral de Monte Agraço, Bombarral and Castanheira de Pera.

Three of the municipalities at the very high level and the municipality at the extreme level are located in the archipelago of Madeira. Funchal, for example, registered on March 9, 1,128 new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, but the DGS warns that the “data must be interpreted in view of the delay between diagnosis and notification verified in the period under analysis”.

We already Azores, all municipalities are at a moderate risk level and the municipality of Ribeira Grande, where Rabo de Peixe is located, is the only one above 120 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants (177 cases, in the accumulated of 14 days until March 9) .