According to the research, the respondents are worried about economic problems and their interest in this direction will be intensified in the pre-election period. Increasing polarization is unacceptable to a large part of the electorate; There is a strong desire to see new faces in politics and support for multi-party governance. The IRI advises political forces to use the survey as a guide and the time left before the elections to take the right steps.
- What are the demands of the voter and for what purposes will he / she go to the polls on October 2?
- What do political parties and political leaders look like before the elections?
Iago Kachkachishvili, Chairman of the Board of the Institute for Social Research and Analysis (ISSA), according to the IRI survey, unites voters into 5 groups, they are:
- Georgian Dream voters – 26% (previous, published in April – 35%);
- Voters of the “National Movement” bloc – 14% (result of the previous survey – 18%);
- Giorgi Gakharia for Georgia – 9% (during the previous survey Gakharia did not have a party yet);
- Pro-Western opposition voters – 15% in total (previous poll results – 13%)
- Voters of nationalist and ultra-right parties (Vasadze’s “Nation”, “Alliance of Patriots”) – 3% in total.
If we look, according to a new IRI poll, the Georgian Dream rating is down 9% from the previous poll – exactly as much as Giorgi Gakharia’s party received.
Iago Kachkachishvili conditionally calls the voters of the ex-Prime Minister’s party “supporters of the Dream Alternative” and thinks that this part “Gakharia wants to see the ‘Georgian Dream’ as the party they want it to be.”
Iago Kachkachishvili suggests filling the wing of the Georgian Dream supporters at the expense of Levan Vasadze’s supporters of the “Nation” and even more so after the violent events of July 5, when the “Georgian Dream” showed loyalty to the radicals. Among Gakharia voters, the sociologist is less fond of people who, for example, “burned the EU flag.”
- According to a survey published by Ipsos (IPSOS) in June on the orders of Mtavari TV, the rating was distributed as follows: Georgian Dream – 32%; “National Movement” – 23%; Gakharia Party for Georgia – 8%.
- According to a study commissioned by Formula One and published by Edison Research in June: “Dream” – 25%, NM – 19%, Gakharia Party – 10%.
Iago Kachkachishvili tells us that for the first time this year a relatively wider and clearer choice appeared for those who do not want to vote for either the Georgian Dream or the National Movement. The so-called The sociologist largely attributes the signs of a certain weakening of bipolarity to the Gakharia factor again.
“Voters in this election are party-institutional more diverse than in all other previous elections. This was obviously facilitated by Gakharia’s departure from the Georgian Dream. The range has become more diverse.
This indicates that no independent political group can bring its chosen party to power alone. This is at least a prerequisite for coalition government. “By the way, the Georgian Dream itself has recently heard about the possibility of forming a coalition government.” – says Kachkachishvili.
Irakli Kobakhidze, the chairman of the Georgian Dream, spoke on July 28 about the theoretical possibility of forming a coalition government; Exactly on the day when he announced the decision to unilaterally cancel the “Charles Michel Agreement”.
Some experts linked the move to Gakharia’s party, but Kobakhidze soon explained that “With Traitors” They will not form a coalition.
By the way, according to an IRI survey, 78% of respondents fully or partially supported the signing of the “Charles Michel Agreement”. This figure is 83% among Georgian Dream supporters. At the time of the study, this agreement had not yet been “canceled” by “Dream”.
Voter attitudes towards multi-party governance were also revealed by the IRI survey. There is also a clear negative attitude of the voters towards the increase of radicalization:
- Fully (51%) or partially (26%), a total of 77% share the view that multi-party governance is beneficial for Georgia’s democracy. 77% share such a position (fully or partially) among the Georgian Dream voters.
- 61% of respondents believe that the country’s policy is moving towards polarization; 22% think – towards consensus.
- 97% of respondents think that polarization is bad and only 1% like it.
- 51% of respondents fully or partially support early elections.
- 89% of respondents say they intend to run in the local elections.
Hopeless and apathetic?
“Unfortunately, Georgia is a country of hopeless and apathetic voters” – The latest IRI survey left such an impression on Levan Tsutskiridze, Executive Director of the Center for Multiparty Democracy in Eastern Europe (EECMD). It is obvious to him that the voters are burdened with the most economic problems.
“It can be seen in the public assessments of the economic situation. Only 1% say that – their economic situation has significantly improved; And only 7% say – it has improved to some extent …
“It means we live in a country of 1%…. – Levan Tsutskiridze tells us.
We ask him – does this figure correspond to the rating of “Georgian Dream” (26%)? Does the voter link this problem to the government?
“Maybe it even connects. But because there is quite a lot of frustration with the opposition as well, it does not reflect in the party ratings. Despair pushes the society towards this as well – because it generally has a hand in the political class …
In the eyes of many voters, all politicians are the same. “For the last seven months, people have been watching only the parties fighting for power, and this survey also shows that a large part of the electorate wants new parties to appear.” Tsutskiridze answers us.
According to the research:
- 61% want new political parties to appear; Satisfied with the old – 31%.
- However, in total, 65% believe that at least one party in Georgia is fully (21%) or partially (44%) interested in it.
- Support for parties is determined by the majority of voters in their economic program – 67%; Health and Social Welfare 48%; Foreign Policy – 14%.
According to Levan Tsutskiridze, the rating of political parties looks rather mediocre and it does not reflect the clear desire of the voters, aspiration and diligence to support.
“It reflects more such an attitude – whatever it is, it is … but then I will still vote for it, or I will vote for it … It is not bad to have a skeptical attitude towards politicians, it is healthy and it should be, but now we have a bad picture of this Hand ….
“On the other hand, people seem to be worried about their fate and the number of people who want to go to the polls is high, but the attitudes of the voters, the goals, the problems of those who have to translate into politics, ie the parties are very weak organizations.” – Tsutskiridze tells us.
According to him, Giorgi Gakharia has a rather high personal and party rating at this stage, “which would be desirable for many novice political forces,” but he is not clear on how this process will continue.
Tsutskiridze thinks that Gakharia and his party are still facing big tests in “political debates, political struggle and business.”
- According to an IRI survey, for 51% of respondents, more important than the party (28%) is the platform and program of this or that candidate, and that is what will guide the vote.
- Only 16% trust promises.
The poll was commissioned by the International Republican Institute on June 15-30, 2021. Through a face-to-face poll, 1,500 respondents with the right to vote took part in it.
According to the IRI, the survey margin of error is +/- 2.5 percent.