The Prime Minister of Georgia Giorgi Gakharia has resigned, just three months after the elections. This resignation of Giorgi Gakharia was more like a real resignation, which can not be compared to the resignation of any of his predecessors, which was more a “dismissal” than a step taken according to the political situation.
What does Gakharia’s “different” resignation change?
Giorgi Gakharia’s resignation has already changed the plans of the ruling party and the opposition. The first effect of resignation is on the face. The Ministry of Internal Affairs issued a unanimous statement: “Due to the resignation of the Prime Minister, the planned event in the case of Nikanor Melia has been temporarily postponed.”
The resignation of Giorgi Gakharia, which the opposition considers to be the result of its own militancy and struggle, has given more impetus and conviction to the demand to resume negotiations between the government and the opposition for early elections.
Giorgi Gakharia’s resignation has also given the ruling party an urgent task of appointing a new Prime Minister, currently held by First Deputy Prime Minister Maia Tskitishvili.
Gharibashvili for the second time
“If Irakli Gharibashvili was a Asavali when he first came, now he will be a Asavali,” joked Dato Zurabishvili, a former member of the Georgian Dream coalition and a political expert, as he tried to guess Giorgi Gakharia’s replacement before the Georgian Dream political council nominated him as prime minister. , Would name Irakli Gharibashvili.
“This is Bidzina Ivanishvili’s decision,” Davit Zurabishvili told RFE / RL. “Ivanishvili is used to such surprises. He seems to have returned to his usual role. It is impossible, except for Bidzina Ivanishvili, for someone to make this decision, it is in principle impossible! “
According to Davit Zurabishvili, Gharibashvili is the political leader who enjoys the support of the most radical supporters of the “Dream”.
Radio Liberty: Can we assume that this decision will further strain the political situation?
David Zurabishvili: “of course! The appointment of Irakli Gharibashvili – the creator of “Gareji Georgia” as Prime Minister does not cost anything at all. It is one of the worst options! ”
What does the constitution tell us?
According to the Constitution of Georgia, the resignation of the Prime Minister can end in early elections, if the Parliament does not express confidence in the government nominated by the ruling party nominated by the ruling party within 2 weeks after the resignation of the Prime Minister.
To gain trust, you need the support of a majority of the full parliament, or 76 deputies. “Georgian Dream” holds 90 seats in the parliament of the X convocation, however, if some of the deputies act in such a way as to show their support for the resigned Gakharia, there will be an opportunity to call early elections.
“Parliament gives another two weeks to present the new government. “If the vote of no-confidence fails within two weeks, then the president is obliged to dissolve parliament and call snap elections within a week,” Vakhushti Menabde, a constitutional law specialist, told RFE / RL.
1. According to the current version of the Constitution, extraordinary elections will be held by the 120/30 (locked) system with a 1% threshold;
2. Extraordinary elections are expected to be held on April 24 at the latest on May 25 (with an error of 1-2 days);
3. Until the political government that wins the snap elections is approved by the new government, the previous cabinet will take office.
However, Archil Talakvadze, one of the leaders of the Georgian Dream and the speaker of the Georgian parliament, says that “the ruling political team is united and that the approval of a new prime minister and government is not a problem.
100% support for the lifting of the MP ika immunity for Nika Melia, which was watched live by the whole of Georgia, leaves no reason to doubt the expectation of the Speaker of Parliament: Irakli Gharibashvili will be the 6th Prime Minister of the Georgian Dream.
Do not goIoda, but left. Why?
Irakli Kobakhidze replaced Bidzina Ivanishvili as the chairman of the Georgian Dream after the October 31 elections. Irakli Kobakhidze was the head of the election headquarters of the Georgian Dream and Irakli Kobakhidze is also the author of the current constitution.
Irakli Kobakhidze was elected chairman of the ruling party at the last congress of the ruling party amid Bidzina Ivanishvili’s “really leaving” politics, and was perceived by both the party and the public as handing over the reins of power to Kobakhidze. This perception was periodically nurtured and reinforced by voices from the government about the impending resignation of Giorgi Gakharia. Giorgi Gakharia last denied the validity of such votes a week ago, on February 12, when he said:
“For more than a year, these questions have been asked, ‘When are you going, today, tomorrow or yesterday?’ [ისმება]. I’m coming so far, you see. These are ordinary rumors that have already become tiring. “
Despite such statements, everyone was waiting for Gakharia to resign, if no one expected him to resign, which has obviously weakened the position of the ruling party, at least, thinks Irakli Kobakhidze, who claims that the issue of Nika Melia’s detention was postponed due to Giorgi Gakharia’s position. :
“Giorgi Gakharia had a different position on this issue from other members of the team. However, unfortunately, the arguments that would support his position, we could not hear. The watershed was an issue whether the state should show its face as a state or not. The answer to this question was unequivocal for the rest of the team. “
How dare you
Gia Khukhashvili, a former adviser to Bidzina Ivanishvili, says that the Georgian Dream and its leaders are working in a state of affect so that they cannot make long-term calculations, thus posing serious threats to the state.
“Many may have complaints with Giorgi Gakharia, but no one can lose the ability to think clearly. Consequently, Gakharia took the absolutely right and only step. This indirectly confirmed that he did not issue a shooting order on June 20 either. It was someone else’s decision to be “planted”. “We showed it with the decision of February 18,” Giorgi Khukhashvili told RFE / RL.
Would Giorgi Gakharia be able to take such a step if Bidzina Ivanishvili remained the chairman of the Georgian Dream?
Political scientist Tornike Sharashenidze is convinced that he was happy in Ivanishvili’s hands so easily and could not resign at such a time:
“It is obvious that the team is not monolithic. The internal ties, after Bidzina’s departure, can no longer be strong. If Bidzina had not gone, obviously, he would not have dared to go so happy. A window of opportunity arose and he left. At the same time, it seems that he was unjustly charged with the responsibility of June 20. He saw a time when a new, incomprehensible crisis was raging and he resigned. If they had not wanted to catch Melia, nothing would have happened. The Georgian Dream won this political round. It is not clear why “Dream” aggravated this situation. Gakharia considered that it was a senseless aggravation that would hurt both the “dream” and the country. And again, these would mean that you have to spend for these processes. “
Davit Zurabishvili, a former member of the Georgian Dream coalition and a policy expert, does not consider Bidzina Ivanishvili’s departure to be a “real departure”, saying that Bidzina Ivanishvili’s departure actually means reducing the number of contacts.
“He has connections with one or two people in the government, he does not have contact with the others. This person is probably Irakli Kobakhidze and one or two like him. Giorgi Gakharia was distinguished in this government by the fact that he was relatively more rational and had an independent rating. “In this situation, when the Georgian Dream created a crisis out of nothing and moved the case towards more polarization, it naturally thought that on June 20, if I had entered it, it would have escaped this unpleasant story, which would have bad consequences for the country.”
What will happen, the elections?
“Giorgi Gakharia was relatively constructive and adequate. “Naming a tougher and irreconcilable candidate will not bring anything good to the country,” said political scientist Tornike Sharashenidze.
According to Davit Zurabishvili, the suspension of the election of the ruling party over Irakli Gharibashvili means that the Georgian Dream is not considering the possibility of holding snap elections or raising the temperature of controversy. According to Zurabishvili, the opposition cannot force the “Dream” to hold elections:
“One problem is the inability and incompetence of the Dream to build the country, but the other problem is that the opposition has many voters, but not enough to say that the whole of Georgia is on its feet. Therefore, there must be something in the political process that supports the rational part of the “Dream” supporters in demanding a change in the situation. In such a case, there may be a prospect of early elections or MPs should be elected to parliament, but, as we have all seen, 88 MPs supported the arrest of Nika Melia. That is why I do not expect anything from the parliament. “
According to David Zurabishvili, there is also an international factor of influence on Bidzina Ivanishvili.
“If there is talk of imposing sanctions on Ivanishvili, then Ivanishvili will step back. I am sure that the story of Melia’s arrest comes from him personally, ”said Zurabishvili.
Gia Khukhashvili is convinced that the leaders of the Georgian Dream are competing with each other in radicalism to cover their fears:
“They prove to each other what cool guys they are, but boys are played by people who, before coming to power, did nothing more than sit in the bushes, did not fight for a day. Fear of demonstrating inner weakness, they force you to play hard. “Everything is expected from such people.”
Giorgi Badridze, a member of the Rondel Foundation and former Ambassador of Georgia to the United Kingdom, believes that the Georgian Dream is still doing what it has done better so far:
“Georgian Dream” depends on the polarization of the society, the use of law enforcement agencies and controlled justice, which has extremely negative consequences for the country’s reputation. We can compare the situation in Georgia and Belarus. In Belarus, the results of the elections are not recognized by any opposition party, all opposition leaders are prosecuted, all independent television stations are under pressure, their owners are persecuted. Such an unfavorable picture is created by remaining in the “power of the Georgian Dream”. It will not end well for Georgia, “said Giorgi Badridze, who does not see the prospect of holding snap elections and easing the situation:
“The logic guided by the leaders of the ‘Dream’ and the people fighting for power within the party rules out such a prospect. That would be a natural and correct solution, but it requires rational action and putting national interests above our own. “
What is the future of Gakharia?
Gia Khukhashvili thinks that the already weak legitimacy of the Georgian Dream will be further reduced by Gakharia’s resignation.
“What will this team rely on?” Asked Khukhashvili, who expects everything from the “ruling party in a state of affect.” “It is difficult to say what they will do, including with regard to Gakharia.”
Giorgi Gakharia’s resignation will undoubtedly weaken the Georgian Dream, but if Gakharia goes home and does nothing, his supporters will either stay with the Dream or take a neutral position, at least not in favor of the opposition, – said Davit Zurabishvili, who said that the more serious The story will be if he is happy to form his own party:
“He has supporters. We have to assume that it will have a rating of more than 3 percent. “