A press report by the writer, Audi Eventhal, posted from The Arab Gulf States Institute in WashingtonThe light on the obstacles and challenges that stand in the way of Israeli-Gulf coordination to confront Iran. He affirmed that the two parties are facing a major test to translate their strategic interests related to Iran into a coordinated policy.
Steps to revive the diplomatic process
The report said that this comes at a time when the new US administration takes its first steps towards reviving the diplomatic process. With Iran, with the aim of returning to the nuclear agreement.
According to the report, many in Israel, especially the official circles, see the most important security and political priorities for relations with the Gulf states. It consists in coordinating a joint effort to create a broad regional front to counter Iran’s influence in the Middle East. And prevent it from possessing the nuclear bomb.
The report added, “However, despite the common interest, there are expected complications in building a common approach and policies. Coordinator on negotiations with Iran. One of the reasons for this is the presence of another party to the equation, which is the United States.
The report added: “Thus, this dynamic process, influenced by three parties, may highlight the differences. And the potential gaps between Israel and the Gulf states in several aspects.
Different priorities to confront Iran
According to the report, while Israel believes that the priority is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, the priority is for the Emirates. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are Iran’s proxies. These countries are very concerned about the existence of a direct Iranian threat to the security and stability of their homeland.
The writer added: “While Israel is able to deal with the threat posed by Iranian missiles and drones. The balance of power between Iran and the Gulf states tilts in Iran’s favor. ”
He indicated that Iran’s forces and proxies were able to penetrate the Gulf air defenses and launched attacks on facilities. Major infrastructure, and the Gulf states have become more dependent on the US defense umbrella.
Call for serious consultations
The writer continued: “Both Israel and the Gulf states call on the administration of US President Joe Biden to consult with them on the steps. That the United States will take towards Tehran so as not to surprise them. They were also surprised when the Joint Comprehensive Joint Action Plan was signed in 2015. ”
He continued, “Nevertheless, Israel’s objection is focused on the American administration’s return to the nuclear agreement.” While it is unclear. Whether the UAE and Saudi Arabia are ready to confront the US administration directly because of this point. Or will you choose. Instead, prioritize their efforts to restore their relations with Washington. After being strained by human rights issues and the war on To whom“.
Thus, according to the report, it is expected that the political-military dialogue on Iran will take place between Israel and the Gulf states. On the one hand and America on the other hand, it is complex and multidimensional.
Preserving Israel’s supremacy
The report said: “The new countries that are thinking will seek to normalize relations with Israel in the future, especially Saudi Arabia. To acquire advanced weapon systems from the United States. Such as the “F-35” and armed drones. To mimic those that the UAE requested after its agreement with Israel.
“It is logical that these countries would argue that they need such advanced capabilities to deal with the Iranian threat,” he added.
He continued, “Nevertheless, Israel is concerned about the regional arms race, especially as it attaches special importance to preservation.” For its qualitative military superiority. Which you see is a key element in ensuring stability in the Middle East. Israel also believes that it is unlikely that the Gulf states will use these American weapons against Iran.
Various dealings with Iran
The Gulf states are not homogeneous regarding their policies on Iran, according to the US report, despite the UAE’s decision. Normalization of relations with Israel. It is also trying to hedge Iran’s risks, positioning itself between Washington and Tehran.
“Abu Dhabi has a pragmatic relationship with Iran, and the two sides continue their security meetings to ease tensions in the Gulf,” the report said.
He continued: “Saudi Arabia has also considered the possibility of conducting a similar dialogue with Tehran due to the loss of confidence in American support. After the September 2019 attack on the kingdom’s vital oil infrastructure. The United States blamed Iran, but it avoided any military response.
“Nevertheless, Riyadh appears to have adopted a more aggressive approach towards Iran since the attacks of September 2019. While there is a diversity of independent policies of the Sultanate of Oman, Qatar and Kuwait towards Iran,” the report continued.
Two separate goals
The report added: “To address common concerns regarding Iran; Israel and the Gulf states will have to distinguish between two separate goals. ”
He said, “First, to create a common front to confront Iranian threats, and secondly to have a coordinated position toward Iran vis-à-vis the United States.”
The report claims that the Arab normalization agreements with Israel provide an opportunity to achieve the first goal by strengthening cooperation. The Israeli Gulf to limit the Iranian influence in the region.
He added: “As part of this effort, the two sides may move to expand the scope of security and intelligence relations, including permitting. For Israel to deploy military capabilities closer to Iran’s borders. This creates a common anti-missile architecture; Maybe under the auspices of the United States. ”
Threats to the UAE and Bahrain
He continued: “Iran is well aware of the seriousness of this cooperation against it, and is already trying to sabotage it by threatening the UAE and Bahrain.”
And he continued, “As for the second goal, Israel and the Gulf states should take into account that the Biden administration.” Addressing the Iranian nuclear threat has already made it a priority. Therefore, they should base their steps on a broad agreement with Washington. Focuses on preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
With regard to possible future negotiations between the United States, Iran and other world powers on returning to the nuclear agreement. According to the report, coordination between Israel and the Gulf states is expected to be a challenge.
“This is particularly due to the fact that Israel and the Gulf states have not yet established a coherent strategy that they can,” the report added. Through which to deal with the Biden administration.
And he continued: “Washington can also see a danger in coordinating efforts against its policies, which it may consider a challenge and an interference in the negotiations.”
Coordinated message between Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE regarding Iran
He continued: “Nevertheless, a coordinated message between Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE regarding Iran, in addition to a common regional position. In the Iranian context, it could be a powerful influence in efforts to influence the administration’s policy on Iran.
He continued, “Thus, the Israeli-Gulf preparation for dialogue with the new administration will include the following: Examining commonalities. Which they can bring up as part of a quiet or open dialogue. In addition to establishing strong Israeli and Gulf communication channels for consultations and coordination. And thinking about overcoming the underlying tensions between them, such as those associated with preserving Israel’s qualitative military edge.
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