Reuters news agency, quoting two sources in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, “OPEC Plus”, said that it was agreed today, Sunday, to increase oil production as of August 2021.
The sources stated that it was also agreed to extend the baseline management agreement until the end of 2022, at the meeting of the ministers of the joint state in the organization on Sunday.
According to the agreement, the UAE’s share has increased to 3.5 million barrels per day, as well as an agreement to increase the baseline for Iraq and Kuwait by 150 thousand barrels per day for each.
The Saudi and Russian production line was also modified by raising it to 11.5 million barrels per day starting in May 2022 instead of 11 million barrels.
Saudi-UAE dispute, OPEC+
It is noteworthy that recently, features of sharp differences have emerged between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which drew the attention of the Arab and Western media. Especially after the tension surfaced with statements from the Kingdom criticizing Abu Dhabi’s position regarding the level of oil production within the framework of “OPEC +”.
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Riyadh responded at the time by excluding any Israeli or other goods manufactured in the free zones of the Gulf states, which constituted a special targeting of the Emirati port of Jebel Ali.
Article 31 of the new law explicitly states that “a commodity does not acquire the status of national origin if one of its components is produced or manufactured in the Zionist entity, or if any of the neutral elements mentioned in Article (9) of the capital produced for it is wholly or partly owned by companies Israeli companies or companies on the Arab boycott of Israel lists.
And “OPEC Plus” abandoned its plans to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day every month from August to December, due to the UAE’s rejection of this plan, considering it “unfair.”
In the same context, while Saudi Arabia and Russia support the extension of the agreement as it is until December 2022, the UAE demanded that an increase in production levels be discussed before agreeing to an extension beyond April.
The fate of the dispute between Saudi Arabia and the Emirates
According to international media, the dispute between the two countries over increasing oil production has revealed old Saddam files between them.
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And Reuters quoted, in a report, quoting analysts, that the dispute indicates an increasing economic competition between the two largest Arab economies, which does not seem to be but will intensify.
And it prompts the question of the extent to which these differences may reach, do they deepen to include political files, or do they remain as they are just a limited dispute in economic files?
Political analyst Joe Macaron believes that “there have been accumulations in Saudi-Emirati relations about two years ago, and they began to appear publicly in the last stage, in light of the intensification of economic competition and the contradiction between the two countries in strategic options.”
However, he suggested that “this dispute will remain in tune, but the competition will continue for the foreseeable future, and the challenge facing the two countries is to manage the dispute between them more smoothly, and to rebuild trust between the leadership of the two countries.”
On the impact of this dispute on the solidity of the Saudi-UAE alliance, Macaron explained in statements to the media, that “the alliance between the two countries has cracked; As a result of what happened in Yemen, the Saudi-Qatari reconciliation and Emirati-Israeli normalization, their strategic interests are no longer common, but sometimes contradictory.
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Therefore, the trend in the next stage is for each of them to have a separate policy on the main issues, but this does not mean the end of communication or the absolute alliance between the two parties.”
He suggested that the differences between them “will not cross the red lines, and will remain in tune, but the solidity of this alliance has been shaken, and it will not return to what it was before,” he said.
An improvement in the relationship between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey
For months, there was a difference between the two countries in some political tracks, including an improvement in the relationship between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, in return for the UAE’s normalization with the occupation very quickly.
Political analyst Joe Macaron explained that “Saudi Arabia is currently compromising its regional opponents, including Turkey,” adding that it is likely that it will continue this approach in the foreseeable future, regardless of what happens in its relations with the UAE.
He explained that “this detente in relations between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey led to raising the level of anxiety and alertness in Abu Dhabi, which does not fully comply with the Saudi options in these two files.”
This tension has also exacerbated pre-existing differences, such as those related to oil policies and economic competition. At the same time, the relationship between the leadership of the two countries is not as strong as it was before, and it may become less able to contain the potential repercussions of these differences.
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