One year since the Karabakh war and a changed reality in the South Caucasus

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One Year went out him Then, Which Mountainous In Karabakh The situation Another Once Became tense. Escalation In the region Decades During Repeatedly It happened, But This time this 6-Weekly War Became, which 6 600-At More human’s Life The victim. Controversial Region And Neighbor Control over villages Azerbaijan Established, Armenian side Yes Forced It happened Hand Of Russia With leadership Achieved For agreement Subscribed. What Meant this War And Her Thus Finish Both For the country And Of the region For safety?

“A year ago, you spoke about the occupation of Azerbaijani territories by Armenia and the aggressive statements and actions of the Armenian government, and this year I am proud to say that Armenia was defeated on the battlefield and Azerbaijan ended the occupation by Armenia,” he said. This year, however, Ilham Aliyev is ready to meet with Armenian Prime Minister Fashinyan if the meeting is organized by the OSCE Minsk Group. Nikol Pashinyan also expressed similar readiness today, saying that he agreed to provide information to Azerbaijan about the mines they had planted in the conflict region, and that Fashinyan would demand the release of the captured Armenian soldiers in return.

In Azerbaijan, as well as in Armenia, the anniversary of the 6-week war for Nagorno-Karabakh was widely celebrated. Azerbaijani soldiers, along with President and Vice President Aliyev, took part in a parade in Baku with photos of fallen comrades.

In Yerevan, thousands of people, including Prime Minister Fashinyan, visited the Yerablur military cemetery to pay their respects to the fallen soldiers. Naira Kartashian, an Armenian citizen and typographer, says that this war changed the country for the worse:

“The war in Armenia has changed a lot, I think the war is not over yet, we have not had a concrete result and solution to this issue … The war has changed our country for the worse, I think it will take another 100 years to forget all this and heal the wounds.” – Ambo Kartashiani.

“This is Putin’s Russia, a country, a regime that lost its empire 30 years ago and is now step by step trying to regain influence over it. “The country or region in centimeters is not heading west, but remains in Russia’s sphere of influence.”

Armenian soldier, war veteran Artur Mkrtichyan also thinks that “the war is not over”: as long as we have a neighbor who is in this mood, it is still an unfinished story … We must be united, we must support each other, we must think about our fellow citizens . That we release them as soon as possible. “

Wounds and injuries are also talked about in Azerbaijan. Asif Maharamov, an Azerbaijani soldier, a war veteran, says he cannot and will not forget the sacrifices of his comrades, and that the horrors of war always follow:

“In my sleep, in my dreams, I see all our fallen soldiers, our martyrs, I often wake up or I can not sleep at all, sometimes something seems to me, this anger is beyond my control. “After seeing so many deaths, I seem to be used to everything, even when I think about starting a family, I know there will be no music and fun at my wedding, because of them.”

The fighting ended last year with a ceasefire agreement. The Moscow-brokered agreement was signed by both sides. For Fashinyan, however, it was an extremely unpopular move. The opposition and part of the population have been demanding his resignation for months.

The politically surviving prime minister, who was considered Lama’s national savior during the Velvet Revolution three years ago, has called early elections. His party won by a large majority in June. However, in the newly formed parliament, members of Fashinian’s team often have to deal with the opposition through physical repulsion. Opponents still accuse Fashinyan of “losing Karabakh.”

Jeffrey Gedmin, an analyst, founder and editor of American Goal, former president of Radio Liberty, says the effects of the war have been felt not only in the two countries but also in the region. The greater involvement of foreign players in the processes was of special importance.

“A year later we are all reminded that a small regional conflict can have a wide geostrategic complexity and significance. I think the identities of the winners and losers are not clear. Yes, there is a side that has won, but ordinary citizens still suffer the most,” he said. Says Gedmin and explains:

“This war has had consequences both within these two countries and at the regional level. At home, it has been positive for Aliyev – for those who are considered victors in the war, it is an opportunity to gain an advantage and consolidate power. Elections in Armenia have led to this. “I think we will see in the future that the involvement of external actors will continue and they will play a different role,” said the researcher and author.

Gedmin believes that it is the role of outside players that makes this conflict even more unpredictable in the long run: “It’s a military exercise. So it’s a very complex chessboard that has a lot of dimensions. Each step affects something else and has predetermined consequences,” explains the researcher.

The agreement, signed in November last year, included a ceasefire and the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in the region. At the end of July this year, the Armenian Prime Minister said that in order to prevent further escalation with Azerbaijan, he also asked Russia to deploy troops on the border between the two countries. Researchers in the region have said, and continue to say, that the deployment of Russian peacekeepers or militants in the region and the involvement of Russia and, to some extent, Turkey in the process do not guarantee lasting peace and may not ultimately benefit anyone.

Jeffrey Gedmin

“This is Vladimir Putin’s Russia, a country, a regime that lost its empire 30 years ago and now, step by step, like pieces of a puzzle, trying to get territories directly on the map or not, at least to influence them to advance their own political, geostrategic and commercial interests. Also to block the interests of Western powers.In this regard, first America, then probably the European Union.Each part of Russia’s perspective is an opportunity to use, to regain control or not, at least influence and make sure that the Caucasian conflicts, country or region “It does not move a centimeter to the west, but remains under Russian influence,” said Jeffrey Gedmin.

The bloody clashes are over, however the citizens have a feeling that the war is going on. Neighbors are still demanding the return of prisoners of war or the fate of the missing.

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