“There will still be early elections” – what does Gakharia know?

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Gakharia’s explanations in Pirveli TV’s “Reaction” program gave the Georgian Dream another reason to accuse its former prime minister of colluding with the opposition.

  • What does the problem of legitimacy in the government mean and what can Gakharia know?
  • Can Gakharia’s team influence the prospect of calling early elections?
  • How can events unfold in Parliament or beyond?

Charles Michel Agreement According to, early parliamentary elections in Georgia in 2022 will be called if “In the October 2021 local self-government elections, the Georgian Dream party will receive less than 43% of the true proportional votes.”

The 43% mark was agreed upon after heated debate. According to RFE / RL, during the ongoing EU-mediated talks, the Georgian Dream demanded a 40% threshold and the opposition a minimum of 45%.

43% threshold of “Georgian Dream” “Genius result” Calls former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, the founder of the party “For Georgia”, whose former teammates, led by Bidzina Ivanishvili, now only As a traitor And are suspected of conspiracy with the opposition.

Giorgi Gakharia says that the current “bosses” of the “Georgian Dream” are lying to their voters, because no matter what percentage the “Dream” gets in the local elections, early elections will be inevitable.

“43% will get” Dream “, 48 or 50, in my opinion, does not matter for a simple reason; Because “Dream”, when it got 48% absolutely legitimately, fairly and cleanly (in the 2020 elections), it simply could not defend its 48% result …

Especially after all the events that took place, “Dream”, no matter how much interest it receives, simply has a problem of legitimacy … and can not solve the problem of legitimacy by 50% and 43% …

It does not matter what percentage “Dream” will receive in the conditions of the problem of legitimacy … It is a problem of the legitimacy of the government … Of course, there will still be extraordinary elections “ – Giorgi Gakharia said on June 8, during his visit to Pirveli TV.

What does joy mean? Is there any information, forecast or specific plan behind his words that will make the appointment of early elections inevitable, regardless of the results of the self-government elections? Is it possible for this to happen even before the self-government elections?

The ex-premier did not provide adequate explanations for these questions, and RFE / RL was unable to find answers on June 9 in his party. ~

However, in April, when the parliamentary majority was named “Gakharia Team” 6 deputies were separated With 84 MPs left in the Dream, experts said there was a chance that the process, if expanded, could lead to the dissolution of parliament and early elections.

  • The parliamentary majority will be dissolved if the remaining 84 deputies are deprived of 9 deputies and the “Dream” no longer has at least 76 deputies necessary for the formation of the majority.
  • Such data cannot automatically become the basis for calling early elections; However, it may become unavoidable if this data is accompanied by a problem of declaring confidence in the government.
  • If for any reason the Prime Minister resigns, he will have to resign and there will be a need to re-form the government, and the “Dream” will no longer have 76 deputies, it will no longer be able to form the government independently.
  • After several unsuccessful attempts to declare confidence in the government in the entrails of parliament, the president must dissolve parliament and call early elections.

What can Gakharia know?

Constitutionalist Levan Alapishvili tells us that a government crisis may arise before and after the self-government elections.

According to Gakharia, Alapishvili does not rule out that he may have real information about the possible separation of other MPs from the Georgian Dream.

“Gakharia was number one on the Georgian Dream list, a person responsible for the elections and with a lot of information.

He knows very well how this list was compiled – who was the representative of which group; What was going on between these groups …

“Maybe he has information that a certain group is also dissatisfied and maybe he will not go with him anyway, but simply – he will leave the majority … Maybe we will read this scenario in Gakharia’s words.” – Levan Alapishvili tells Radio Liberty.

Speaking to RFE / RL, members of the ruling party ruled out the possibility of other MPs leaving the majority.

“Pre-Announced Chronicle of Sabotage”

Gakharia’s words gave the Georgian Dream another excuse to reunite their former prime minister with the opposition. On June 9, the party’s chairman, Irakli Kobakhidze, said that Gakharia’s rhetoric was exactly the same as that of the radical opposition.

“A very important thing has been tried and here again there are dubious connections between interests … He knows for sure that we will not have a hard time overcoming the 43% threshold and that is why he tried … He said such a thing that even if he took more than 43% “Georgian Dream” may still have a problem with legitimacy …

This is a pre-announced chronicle of sabotage … here, of course, the rhetoric of Gakharia and the radical opposition coincide … it was an experiment that provides a very good basis for analysis. “ – Irakli Kobakhidze told journalists on June 9.

The main target of Giorgi Gakharia’s harsh statements on TV on June 8 was not Bidzina Ivanishvili, but Irakli Kobakhidze, the chairman of the Georgian Dream.

The ex-premier hinted at him that in addition to the opposition, he also called Irakli Kobakhidze a “rabbit” and that he had many other things to say to him. In the same interview, Gakharia said that Kobakhidze, with the help of “invisible hand”, was making plans to risk Nika Melia bypassing him and decided to resign just when he tried to call Bidzina Ivanishvili, but did not receive an answer and considered this answer as an answer.

Irakli Kobakhidze was the first member of the Dream team to accuse Giorgi Gakharia of plotting with the opposition, and on June 4, in an interview with Rustavi 2, drew a scenario of a “government freeze” that UNM leader Mikheil Saakashvili wants to return to Georgia. To be crowned.

On June 8, experts saw the same clear hints in Bidzina Ivanishvili’s letter. Now, the whole “Georgian Dream” is talking loudly about Gakharia’s betrayal and conspiracy scenario.

What is happening against Giorgi Gakharia now, according to constitutionalist Vakhtang Dzabiradze, is a very favorable situation for him, because on the one hand – under the influence of sharp criticism from the ruling party, and on the other – from the opposition, the ex-premier holds the positions of a third force.

Identification

Dzabiradze does not rule out that the issue of calling early elections in Georgia may arise over time, even if the Georgian Dream exceeds the 43% threshold; But, in his opinion, this will happen not because of the lack of legitimacy of the government, but because of the extreme aggravation of the social and economic background or as a result of some surprises.

“Corruption and nepotism were mentioned by Gakharia, no one still knows what bombs may explode in the future and so on … Extraordinary elections may still be held, but not tied to legitimacy” – Vakhtang Dzabiradze tells us.

Levan Alapishvili sees a “correct political statement” in Giorgi Gakharia’s logic regarding the lack of legitimacy.

As he told RFE / RL, the legitimacy of the government is being called into question by the content of the Charles Michel agreement itself, signed by the Georgian Dream, which acknowledged that it failed to resolve a number of issues during its nine years in power.

“The government was actually told – you do not have democracy and your contribution to this is great, it naturally has a problem of legitimacy, it will be created or increased both inside and outside the country … Do not forget who was involved in the (mediation) process and before whom he confessed” Georgian Dream “All This” – Levan Alapishvili tells Radio Liberty.

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